Monday, 18 September 2017
Week on week, AUD swap prices are up only slightly with a reasonable rally in sugar prices almost entirely offset by the upward move in the currency.
The OCT17 expiry is now in full swing and we expect to see prices gyrate either side of 14 cents until it rolls off the board. There are no solid estimates yet but we expect to see a delivery to the tape in excess of 1 million tonnes. With ethanol parity now up around current sugar equivalent prices it is hoped that sugar may be able to build a base here, but any upward momentum will be flattened by the global surplus.
We expect a 13-15 cent range for the short term until we see a fundamental shift in the outlook.
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